the all-weather book · monthly · convex.taikunsystems.comtick 4 min ago · refresh 60s
CONVEXlive · paperHARVEST — sell the puts
Own the market, survive its storms. A four-sleeve
book: equity core, crisis-correlated trend, T-bill dry powder, and a
monetized tail-hedge advisory — rebalanced by machine on the first trading
day of each month.
expires 2026-10-19 · opened 2026-08-20 (spot 109.71)
budgeted $123 · est. premium $0.48/sh
marked 63.77x premium · status
HARVEST
20% OTM · ~60 days · rolled every 30 · 1.5%/yr
budget · monetized at 5x — the white paper's single largest
finding: harvesting into panic is worth more than strike selection.
Why advisory, not orders
This sleeve's backtest is priced on a model (Black-Scholes + an
assumed volatility-risk premium), not on historical option chains — the
one part of the book we could not validate on real data. Until real
chains prove it, the 3% budget sits in T-bills, the intended position
is published here, and the HARVEST alarm fires when the 5x rule
triggers. Honest numbers or no numbers.