the all-weather book · monthly · convex.taikunsystems.com tick 4 min ago · refresh 60s
CONVEX live · paper HARVEST — sell the puts

Own the market, survive its storms. A four-sleeve book: equity core, crisis-correlated trend, T-bill dry powder, and a monetized tail-hedge advisory — rebalanced by machine on the first trading day of each month.

Equity
$100,000
account
Period return
+0.00%
5 marked days
Gross exposure
0.94x
cap 1.35x, enforced pre-trade
Last rebalance
2026-08
next: first trading day of the month
SLEEVES

The book

Equity core · SPY · 75% Trend · 19 markets · 15% T-bills · BIL · 7% Tail hedge · 3% budget
TARGETS

Current month's positions

SymbolSideWeight
SPY LONG +75.41%
BIL LONG +10.50%
GLD LONG +0.75%
DBC LONG +0.73%
FXE LONG +0.64%
TLT LONG +0.61%
IWM LONG +0.55%
SLV LONG +0.52%
SHY LONG +0.49%
UUP LONG +0.43%
USO SHORT -0.41%
HYG LONG +0.41%
IEF SHORT -0.36%
EFA LONG +0.35%
XLE SHORT -0.35%
QQQ LONG +0.34%
XLU LONG +0.32%
EEM LONG +0.30%
LQD LONG +0.28%
CONVEXITY

Tail-hedge advisory

The position a follower would hold

2x SPY 90P
expires 2026-10-19 · opened 2026-08-20 (spot 109.71)
budgeted $123 · est. premium $0.48/sh
marked 63.77x premium · status HARVEST
20% OTM · ~60 days · rolled every 30 · 1.5%/yr budget · monetized at 5x — the white paper's single largest finding: harvesting into panic is worth more than strike selection.

Why advisory, not orders

This sleeve's backtest is priced on a model (Black-Scholes + an assumed volatility-risk premium), not on historical option chains — the one part of the book we could not validate on real data. Until real chains prove it, the 3% budget sits in T-bills, the intended position is published here, and the HARVEST alarm fires when the 5x rule triggers. Honest numbers or no numbers.
EVIDENCE

Validated on ten years of real data

Book CAGR
+11.8%
vs SPY +14.9% (2016-26)
Max drawdown
−17.1%
vs SPY −23.9%
Walk-forward
4 / 5
2y windows beat SPY on Ret/DD
Calendar 2022
+5.8%
trend sleeve, stocks & bonds down
LOG

Recent events

2026-08-24 18:22 UTC · hedge advisory -> HARVEST (marked 63.82x premium)
2026-08-20 19:43 UTC · rebalance (sim): 19 orders, gross 0.94
2026-08-20 16:43 UTC · hedge advisory opened: 2x SPY 90P exp 2026-10-19