the all-weather book · monthly · convex.taikunsystems.com tick 12 min ago · refresh 60s
CONVEX live · paper

Own the market, survive its storms. A four-sleeve book: equity core, crisis-correlated trend, T-bill dry powder, and a monetized tail-hedge advisory — rebalanced by machine on the first trading day of each month.

Equity
$99,186
account
Period return
-0.09%
64 marked days
Gross exposure
1.02x
held · 1.04x targeted · cap 1.35x
Last rebalance
2026-10:live
next: first trading day of the month
SLEEVES

The book

Equity core · SPY · 75% Trend · 19 markets · 15% T-bills · BIL · 7% Tail hedge · 3% budget
BOOK

Target vs held

SymbolSideTargetHeld
SPY LONG +75.70% +76.05%
BIL LONG +12.37% +12.38%
SHY LONG +2.37% +2.30%
HYG LONG +2.34% +2.17%
IEF SHORT -1.69% -1.75%
FXE SHORT -1.74% NOT HELD
UUP LONG +1.64% +1.57%
LQD SHORT -1.47% -1.47%
TLT SHORT -0.88% -0.91%
QQQ LONG +0.43% +0.71%
XLU SHORT -0.56% -0.60%
EFA LONG +0.57% +0.42%
IWM LONG +0.52% +0.28%
XLE LONG +0.40% +0.41%
DBC LONG +0.41% +0.41%
GLD LONG +0.32% +0.37%
EEM LONG +0.33% +0.25%
SLV LONG +0.17% +0.15%
USO LONG +0.17% +0.16%
1 target not held. A target opens only once it is worth at least half a whole share, so the smallest legs can round away at this account size. Targets are what the validated book prescribes; Held is what the account actually owns.
CONVEXITY

Tail-hedge advisory

The position a follower would hold

1x SPY 615P
expires 2026-11-23 · opened 2026-09-24 (spot 767.93)
budgeted $123 · est. premium $0.78/sh
marked 0.09x premium · status OPEN
20% OTM · ~60 days · rolled every 30 · 1.5%/yr budget · monetized at 5x — the white paper's single largest finding: harvesting into panic is worth more than strike selection.

Why advisory, not orders

This sleeve's backtest is priced on a model (Black-Scholes + an assumed volatility-risk premium), not on historical option chains — the one part of the book we could not validate on real data. Until real chains prove it, the 3% budget sits in T-bills, the intended position is published here, and the HARVEST alarm fires when the 5x rule triggers. Honest numbers or no numbers.
EVIDENCE

Validated on ten years of real data

Book CAGR
+11.8%
vs SPY +14.9% (2016-26)
Max drawdown
−17.1%
vs SPY −23.9%
Walk-forward
4 / 5
2y windows beat SPY on Ret/DD
Calendar 2022
+5.8%
trend sleeve, stocks & bonds down
LOG

Recent events

2026-10-01 19:34 UTC · rebalance (LIVE): 13 orders, gross 1.04, FAILED legs: FXE
2026-09-24 04:07 UTC · hedge advisory rolled: 1x SPY 615P exp 2026-11-23
2026-09-24 04:07 UTC · hedge advisory -> ROLL (marked 0.06x premium)
2026-09-01 19:30 UTC · rebalance (LIVE): 0 orders, gross 1.04
2026-08-25 19:44 UTC · rebalance (LIVE): 15 orders, gross 1.04
2026-08-25 09:13 UTC · hedge advisory rolled: 1x SPY 610P exp 2026-10-24
2026-08-25 09:13 UTC · hedge advisory -> ROLL (marked 0.0x premium)
2026-08-24 18:22 UTC · hedge advisory -> HARVEST (marked 63.82x premium)
2026-08-20 19:43 UTC · rebalance (sim): 19 orders, gross 0.94
2026-08-20 16:43 UTC · hedge advisory opened: 2x SPY 90P exp 2026-10-19